Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=Transcript of the talk, from the video's captions. Auto-generated: speaker names in particular are unreliable.
=

# Activation of Ethnic Tensions: Resettlement, Diversity, and Conflict in the Long Run

Authors:   
Discussant: None  
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC4ESywpIDc&t=11326s


## Talk (03:08:46 – 03:18:45)

[03:08:46] so um yeah so um we have a pre lightning round talks just as a reminder uh we have no questions during the lightning talk so but we uh scheduled lunch right  
[03:09:00] afterwards So you have plenty of opportunity to find any potential for comments afterwards. So our first is essay.  
[03:09:08] >> All right. Thank you to the organizers for including the paper in the program.  
[03:09:11] I'm going to talk to you about how the activation of of ethnic identities uh modulates the effect of conflict of diversity on conflict in the long run.  
[03:09:19] uh by 2050 uh uh over 216 million people are expected to be internally displaced due to climate change and potentially increasing uh ethnic cohabitation or coopition of people from different backgrounds. And  
[03:09:33] so understanding how such large scale demographic shifts affect social relations is critical. While we know a lot about how diversity affects conflict and the cross-section, there's very limited evidence on how the activation of of group identities modulates the effect of increased intergroup contact  
[03:09:47] on on conflict. Um, conflict is not an inevitable consequence of diversity even when when uh uh tensions or intergroup differences are are heightened by increasing exposure to wider perspectives and and strengthening  
[03:10:00] shared identity. Diversity could help communities withstand the forces of division. Um at the same time uh diverse communities are also vulnerable to the manipulation of grievances by elites and and increased competition over power and  
[03:10:13] resources which can fuel conflict when when intergroup differences are are uh become salient. And so ultimately it's an empirical question and so in this paper I essentially ask how does the activation of ethnic identities affect conflict in communities that are made  
[03:10:27] diverse by large scale historical migration and two sources of variation in Eip provide a unique opportunity to study this question. The first one is an unfortunate large-scale forest resettlement program that was implemented 1984 or86 and the second one  
[03:10:41] is decades later essentially an increase in salience of ethnicity that was precipitated by opposition to the expansion of the capital city. Uh to give you a little bit background about the first program um some of you that are old enough to know about live aid  
[03:10:54] may recognize that had a severe drought in 1984 and which resulted in or contributed to famine particularly in the highlands. At the time the communist regime was highly very embarrassed about about the ex the incident of famine and  
[03:11:08] they used considered resettlement as a way to of of addressing or as an emergency family relief measure as well as kind of addressing the uh long run population imbalance uh problem that they consider particularly from densely  
[03:11:23] populated highlands. The program was implemented with extreme haste. Within essentially 6 months of announcing the program, they moved over 340,000 people.  
[03:11:32] This graph shows you essentially the scale of of the outflows. And the settlers mostly came from the northern and central highlands which were densely populated and and experienced severe famine as well as from the densely  
[03:11:45] populated areas in in the uh in the south. And they were relocated across different ethnic homelands particularly in the west and and southern west of the of the country.  
[03:11:56] uh uh considering in resettlement intensity essentially the the median share of the population resettled in resettle was about 4% the mean was about 11% in some communities the resettled actually outnumbered the indigenous  
[03:12:11] community members. Uh the program ended after over 600,000 people were resettled largely because of criticisms and part of the criticism was because the resettlement program essentially had a severe disregard for the rights of the  
[03:12:24] uh both the settled settlers and the host communities. In particular, officials forced unwilling famine victims to relocate under this program and the host communities often had little say on on you know who they received or the extent of the in  
[03:12:38] resettlement. Uh this is a quote from Digis who was in charge of the resettlement program who ended up defecting to the US actually partly over opposition with the program who argued that Mustuk who was the leader of the the government at the time essentially  
[03:12:51] literally took a helicopter ride and dictated where resettlement sites should occur uh and largely as a function of the abundance of water and forest land and I I I find evidence that's kind of consistent with that decades later in  
[03:13:04] 2015 expansions of Dabbas capital Dabbas boundary into the neighboring region precipitated large-scale protest that uh kind of spread nationwide. Uh in blue you see here is essentially incidents of  
[03:13:18] of protest which spiked in late uh 2015 and then in 2016. Um following that there was a large scale uh increase in in ethnic identification. The bar graph in red shows you using Afro barometer surveys the share of respondents who say  
[03:13:32] they identify only or more with their ethnic groups which essentially doubled during this period. uh the rise in ethnic salience is also corroborated with Google search based proxies for ethnic salience essentially how intensely people search for ethnic group  
[03:13:45] names which similarly uh sees a spike in that period and so what I do in this paper is essentially leverage the cross-sectional variation in resettlement intensity induced by this historical program and the temporal variation in the salience of ethnicity  
[03:13:58] that's caused by this this emergence of of the the protest to study how intgroup contact may affect conflict when divisions or intergroup divisions become become salient. The main outcome is essentially incidents and severity of  
[03:14:13] conflicts targeting civilians essentially are violent events where uh the targets are mainly or only civilians. So I'm trying to pick up essentially conflict that potentially has communal component to it and that could be targeting uh targeting outsiders. Uh and just to give you this  
[03:14:27] is essentially summarizes the main result where you see this these communities are largely peaceful for a long period of time and then following this this rise in spike in ethnic salience you see a divergence in insensity of conflict and it's more severe particularly in places that were  
[03:14:41] recipients of of sets I estimate this using the kind of the standard difference and difference design that I specified earlier uh and what I find is that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of the population in resettle results in about 10% uh increase  
[03:14:55] increase in fatalities from from uh civilian targeting violence and and about 6% increase in incident incident of of these these violence. Uh civilian targetings are mainly perpetrated by ethnic militias. So it has a a communal  
[03:15:10] component. These are militias that are organized along political or or identity lines. But in the piping context that essentially boils down to ethnic identity as well. uh and they mainly target Amhara farmers who are likely to  
[03:15:24] be settlers in these communities. So 64% of the initial settlers comprised of of people from the Amhara Amar ethnic groups. And so the results suggest that resettle populations may be vulnerable to increased communal conflict during  
[03:15:36] periods of of of heightened uh tensions despite showing kind of peaceful or relatively peaceful coexistence for for long periods. And so what explains or why do we see these communities that have long remained peaceful suddenly descend into violence? And I essentially  
[03:15:51] I do use bunch of u geocoded census data and surveys to kind of tease out the mechanisms. And what I find is that resettlement districts which became highly diverse with kind of deep-seated grievances are particularly vulnerable  
[03:16:04] to the manipulation o of of these grievances by by elites. So there are few sets of results. I find that using kind of a difference and different design before and after resettlement resettlement destinations become ethnically fractionalized and polarized  
[03:16:17] because the program moved people of particular ethnic groups to other ethnic homelands that were substantially different from them. Uh and not only that because of the way it was implemented it end up creating these enclaves of minority ethnic groups that are surrounded by uh by uh indigenous  
[03:16:32] groups. And there's also some evidence that resettlement destinations exhibit greater ethnic wealth stratification where inequality wealth inequality is largely attributable to differences between ethnic groups rather than within  
[03:16:43] ethnic groups which may be kind of um very conducive for the exploitation of potential grievances along along ethnic lines. And following the nationwide spike in in and ethnic salience, um I find that in resettlement districts,  
[03:16:58] residents are more likely to identify with their own ethnic group over their national identity and they're more likely to mistrust their neighbors, particularly non-coh neighbors. Uh and considering potential mediating factors,  
[03:17:11] I find that resettlement areas that were ethnically polarized, so people were that are very different from each other were brought together that had fewer integrated settlements. So there were two modalities of resettlement. In some places they embedded people within  
[03:17:24] existing communities and so had a chance to be integrated from the outset.  
[03:17:28] Whereas in other communities they set up new communities mainly consist of the settlers. Uh there's greater conflict in the latter in the latter communities.  
[03:17:36] And in some communities there were skirmishes in the from the outset. And so communities that are history of violence from the outset were that had difficulty with social integration see kind of a reignition of that conflict during periods of of of heightened  
[03:17:49] ethnic tensions. So to conclude my paper studies how the activation of group identity modulates the effect of intergroup contact on conflict in the long run uh and where relatively peaceful in this context. We see that  
[03:18:02] resettlement districts become um vulnerable to conflict when ethnic identities become salient and and the results highlight that the risk of conflict due to increased intergroup contact may be dependent not only on the demographic change but on how people are  
[03:18:15] brought together and the salience of the factors that divide that divide these communities and and you know we saw this uh a year or so ago in with even in the US context where Haitian migrants or who were resettled in Ohio were suddenly uh  
[03:18:29] exposed to a substantial viol or conflict because of kind of national level uh increase in the salience of of of their their group identities. Thank you.